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Section #21 - A North-South Split in the Democrat Party leads to a Republican Party victory in 1860

Chapter 255: Lincoln Becomes America’s Sixteenth President

November 6, 1860

Lincoln’s Sweep In The North Gives Him The Presidency

Abraham Lincoln 9
Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865)

Public interest in the 1860 election is high, as reflected in the 81% turn-out level. 

Percent Of Eligibles Voting For President 
184018441848185218561860
Turn-out80%7973707981

As both expected and feared, November 6 offers up two elections in one: a Northern race pitting Lincoln against Douglas, and a Southern contest between Breckinridge and Bell. The result is that no candidate comes close to winning a popular vote majority – although Lincoln with his 39.8% share enjoys a sizable margin over the runner-up, Douglas.

Percent Of The Popular Vote For Each Candidate 
LincolnDouglasBreckinridgeBell Total
39.8%29.5%18.1%12.6% 100.0%

What gives Lincoln the presidency then is the sheer dominance of the Northern states in the  Electoral College and the winner-take-all rules on a state by state basis. He takes every state up  north with the exception of New Jersey to rack up 180 electoral votes against the 152 needed to  win. In the South, he is shut out entirely, without even appearing on many state ballots.  

Full Results Of The 1860 Presidential Election 
1856 PartyPop Vote ElectoralSouthBorderNorthWest
Lincoln Republican 1,865,908180001737
Douglas No. Democrat 1,380,202120930
Breckinridge So. Democrat848,01972611100
Bell Con. Union590,9013915240o
Other531
Total 4,685,561 30376441767
Need To Win152

The Republican campaign has concentrated on five Northern states that Buchanan carried in  1856, and is able to “flip” 59 of the 63 electoral votes there to Lincoln in 1860.

CH255-1 

Key State “Flips” Between 1856 And 1860 Explaining Lincoln’s Victory 

Penn.  IndianaIllinois California New Jersey Total
Electoral Votes At  Stake 27131147*63
Popular Vote % To Win
Buchanan in 185650%50%44%48%48%
Lincoln in 186056%51%51%32.3% 48%
Nearest Rival39(D)  42(D)47(D)31.7(D)52(F) 
* In NJ Lincoln loses the popular vote (48/52%) to a “fusion ticket” of Douglas/Bell/Breckinridge, but still takes 4 of 7 electors. 

Lincoln carries most Northern states with 54% or more of the popular votes. Douglas’ only outright win is in Missouri. Bell carries his home state of Tennessee, along with Kentucky and Virginia. Breckinridge is dominant across the Lower South.

State By State Results In The Presidential Election Of 1860
Lincoln By MajorityElectoralLincolnDouglasBreckinridgeBell“Fusion”
Vermont75.8% 19.4%4.2%  0.5%
Minnesota63.4 34.32.20.1
Massachusetts13 62.9 20.33.613.2
Maine62.2 29.46.32.0
Rhode Island61.4 38.600
Connecticut58.1 20.619.22.0
Michigan57.2 42.00.50.3
New Hampshire56.9 39.33.20.6
Wisconsin56.6 42.70.60.1
Pennsylvania27 56.3 3.502.737.5%
Iowa54.6 43.20.81.4
New York35 53.70046.3
Ohio23 51.2 42.32.62.8
Indiana13 51.1 42.44.52.0
Illinois11 50.7 47.20.71.4
Lincoln By Plurality
Oregon36.1 28.0 34.4 1.5
California32.3 31.7 28.4 7.6
NJ Fusion48.151.9
Total – Lincoln180
Breckinridge-Majority
South Carolina8Led pick
Texas475.524.5
Florida31.762.236.1
Mississippi74.759.036.3
Alabama9015.154.030.9
Arkansas49.953.137.0
North Carolina102.850.546.7
Breckinridge-Plurality
Georgia1010.948.940.2
Maryland82.56.445.945.1
Delaware323.76.645.524.2
Louisiana615.144.940.0
Total – Breckinridge72
Bell By Plurality
Tennessee127.744.647.7
Virginia151.19.844.544.6
Kentucky120.917.536.345.2
Total – Bell39
Douglas By Plurality
Missouri910.335.518.935.3
NJ Fusion348.151.9
Total – Douglas12
Grand Total303
Needed To Win152
November 6, 1860

Republicans Also Pick Up Congressional Seats

In the Senate, Democrats hold a one seat edge when the 37th Congress opens on March 4, 1861.  But this margin will rapidly disappear, as a total of eleven Southern states secede, leaving their  seats vacant and handing the majority over to the Republicans of the North. 

Election Trends In The Senate 
Party 185618581860
Democrats373830
Republicans202529
Whigs320
Know Nothings401
Vacant108
Total656568

In the House, the Republicans extend their lead over the Democrats after massive vacancies  occur across the South. 

Election Trends In The House
Party185618581860
Democrats1339845
Republicans90116108
Opp/Unionists01930
Know Nothings1450
Vacant056
Total237238239